The Web of Markets
2026-10-13
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗Yields are expected to edge modestly higher over the next 20 sessions before stabilizing.
- Financial↗Financials are likely to post modest net gains with large-cap momentum offsetting small-cap weakness.
- Commodity↗Commodities should mean-revert higher as agricultural prices recover from oversold levels.
- Currency↗The dollar is expected to show mild net strength versus peers over the next 20 sessions.
- Crypto↗OLS20d corr -0.32 — The FLAT block should persist through the horizon unless correlation flips positive at next boundary.
Direction ratio 0.57 bullish (-10pp weekly):moderating breadth
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 38%- Middle East→Iran-backed proxies intensify Red Sea shipping harassment(14d outlook)
- Eastern Europe→Russia signals potential winter natgas flow restrictions to Europe(18d outlook)
- Indo-Pacific→Chinese naval patrols increase near Taiwan Strait(30d outlook)
- Persian Gulf→Houthi drone incidents target tanker routes(10d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
Neutral — leaning risk-onCash Flow
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+0.25
JPY carry direction
+0.47
Commodity-currency breadth
-0.78
Income
Risk On
3/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
+0.52
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
-0.99
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
-0.08
Balance Sheet
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.34
HY credit spread z-score
-0.85
Real yields z-score
-0.46
As of 2026-10-13 · Cash Flow / Income / Balance Sheet per Finance View framework