The Web of Markets
2026-10-15
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗Rates are expected to remain elevated over next 20 sessions.
- Financial↗Large caps likely edge higher with small caps lagging.
- Commodity↗Commodities likely mean-revert with selective rebounds.
- Currency↗USD expected to hold firm versus peers over 20 sessions.
- Crypto→20d corr -0.40 — FLAT block expected to persist until next boundary.
0.46 bearish direction ratio (-11pp weekly):mild bearish bias
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 38%- Middle East→Iran proxy militia strikes on Gulf shipping and energy infrastructure(14d outlook)
- Eastern Europe→Russian advances threatening Ukraine gas transit routes ahead of winter(21d outlook)
- East Asia→Chinese naval maneuvers and increased activity near Taiwan Strait(30d outlook)
- Red Sea→Intermittent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels(10d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
NeutralCash Flow
Neutral
1/4 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+0.35
JPY carry direction
+0.11
Commodity-currency breadth
-0.61
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
+0.37
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
-1.00
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
-0.89
Balance Sheet
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.34
HY credit spread z-score
-0.69
Real yields z-score
-0.40
As of 2026-10-15 · Cash Flow / Income / Balance Sheet per Finance View framework