The Web of Markets
2026-10-18
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗Yields are expected to remain elevated as restrictive expectations persist over 20 sessions.
- Financial↗Indices are likely to stabilize as volatility mean-reverts with energy and quality leading.
- Commodity↗Energy commodities are expected to stay firm while broad demand remains uneven.
- Currency↗The dollar is expected to hold firm as tightening bias supports real yields.
- Crypto→20d corr -0.13 — The FLAT block is expected to persist until next boundary unless correlation flips positive.
Direction ratio at 40% bullish (-17pp):defensive rotation broadening
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 38%- Middle East↘Iran-Israel proxy clashes with sporadic Strait of Hormuz threats(18d outlook)
- Eastern Europe↘Russia-Ukraine winter stalemate with marginal energy infrastructure strikes(12d outlook)
- Indo-Pacific↘Chinese naval drills near Taiwan with US freedom-of-navigation response(25d outlook)
- Red Sea↘Recurrent Houthi drone attacks on commercial shipping(10d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
Risk-off (moderate)Cash Flow
Risk Off
3/5 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+0.23
JPY carry direction
+0.21
Commodity-currency breadth
-0.52
Income
Risk Off
3/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
+0.15
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
-0.96
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
-1.00
Balance Sheet
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.34
HY credit spread z-score
-0.76
Real yields z-score
+0.25
As of 2026-10-18 · Cash Flow / Income / Balance Sheet per Finance View framework