The Web of Markets
2026-10-22
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗Yields are expected to remain elevated over the next 20 sessions as restrictive policy persists.
- Financial→Broad indices are likely to grind sideways as leadership broadens defensively over 20 sessions.
- Commodity↗Commodities are expected to stay firm with energy supported over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency↗The dollar is likely to remain supported by yield advantage over the 20-session horizon.
- Crypto→20d corr -0.32 — The FLAT block is expected to persist over the next 20 sessions absent positive correlation flip.
Direction ratio 0.50 (+12pp bullish):moderate breadth bias
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 47%- Middle East→Iran-Israel shadow conflict and Houthi threats to Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz shipping(14d outlook)
- Eastern Europe→Russia-Ukraine winter energy leverage amid stalled front lines(21d outlook)
- East Asia→Chinese naval drills near Taiwan amid semiconductor export controls(30d outlook)
- Middle East→OPEC+ production signals tied to Iran sanctions enforcement(10d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
Neutral — leaning risk-offCash Flow
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+1.00
JPY carry direction
-1.00
Commodity-currency breadth
+0.05
Income
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
-0.01
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
-0.41
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
-0.94
Balance Sheet
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.34
HY credit spread z-score
-0.90
Real yields z-score
+0.49
As of 2026-10-22 · Cash Flow / Income / Balance Sheet per Finance View framework