The Web of Markets
2026-10-23
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗10Y yields are likely to rise modestly over the next 20 sessions as restrictive policy holds.
- Financial→Broad indices are expected to grind sideways with defensive leadership broadening over 20 sessions.
- Commodity↗Oil is likely to remain firm with energy outperforming over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency↗USD is expected to hold firm over the next 20 sessions keeping conditions tight.
- Crypto→20d corr -0.18 — The FLAT block is expected to persist until the next boundary with no sign flip.
Direction ratio 0.50 neutral, +12pp bullish:stable breadth momentum
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 38%- Persian Gulf↘Iran-Israel proxy exchanges with restrained direct strikes(14d outlook)
- Eastern Europe↘Ukraine winter energy talks amid frozen front lines(21d outlook)
- East Asia↘Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan with signaling rhetoric(30d outlook)
- Red Sea↘Episodic Houthi vessel harassment without major supply interruption(10d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
Neutral — leaning risk-offCash Flow
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+0.97
JPY carry direction
-1.00
Commodity-currency breadth
+0.26
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
-0.03
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
+0.25
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
-1.00
Balance Sheet
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.34
HY credit spread z-score
-0.65
Real yields z-score
+0.70
As of 2026-10-23 · Cash Flow / Income / Balance Sheet per Finance View framework