The Web of Markets
2026-10-25
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Financial→SPY is expected to be neutral over the next 20 sessions.
- Commodity↗PDBC is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency↗UUP is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Crypto↗20d corr +0.18 — BTC-USD is expected to be higher as correlation is above zero.
0.44 bearish dir ratio +0pp weekly:high dispersion 2.01 persists
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 42%20-trading-session forecast: a shock, or none, over the next 20 sessions.
- Middle East→Iranian proxy militia exchanges with Israeli forces near Golan without direct state strikes(35d outlook)
- Eastern Europe→Russia-Ukraine frontline stalemate entering winter with LNG diversion talks(20d outlook)
- East Asia→Routine PLA naval transits near Taiwan coinciding with US defense reviews(60d outlook)
- Middle East→Houthi sporadic Red Sea incidents with coalition naval response(25d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
NeutralCash Flow
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+0.87
JPY carry direction
-1.00
Commodity-currency breadth
+0.66
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
-0.07
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
+0.39
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
-1.00
Balance Sheet
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.34
HY credit spread z-score
-1.00
Real yields z-score
+1.00
20-trading-day forecast from Cash Flow, Income, and Balance Sheet:
supportive of markets, or not, over the next 20 trading days. As of 2026-10-25.