The Web of Markets
2026-10-26
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Financial↗SPY is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Commodity↗PDBC is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency↗UUP is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Crypto↗20d corr +0.32 — BTC-USD is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
Direction ratio at 41% bullish:high dispersion 2.04 persists
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 39%20-trading-session forecast: a shock, or none, over the next 20 sessions.
- Eastern Europe↘Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of winter(25d outlook)
- Middle East↘Iran-Israel proxy exchanges in Syria and Lebanon(18d outlook)
- Indo-Pacific↘Chinese naval drills near Taiwan and Senkakus(35d outlook)
- Middle East↘Houthi interference with Red Sea shipping lanes(50d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
NeutralCash Flow
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+0.71
JPY carry direction
-0.72
Commodity-currency breadth
+0.66
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
-0.07
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
+0.39
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
-1.00
Balance Sheet
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.34
HY credit spread z-score
-1.00
Real yields z-score
+1.00
20-trading-day forecast from Cash Flow, Income, and Balance Sheet:
supportive of markets, or not, over the next 20 trading days. As of 2026-10-26.