The Web of Markets
2026-10-27
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield ^TNX is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Financial↘SPY is expected to be lower over the next 20 sessions.
- Commodity↗PDBC is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency↗UUP is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Crypto↗20d corr +0.22 — BTC-USD is expected to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
Direction ratio at 41% bullish (-5pp weekly):high dispersion stable regime
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 36%20-trading-session forecast: a shock, or none, over the next 20 sessions.
- Middle East→Iran-Israel shadow conflict with Houthi proxy incidents but active Qatar-mediated talks(35d outlook)
- Eastern Europe→Russia-Ukraine winter stalemate with renewed ceasefire exploration via third-party mediators(50d outlook)
- East Asia→Routine PLA drills near Taiwan with no blockade signals and reciprocal US diplomatic visits(20d outlook)
- Global Energy→Targeted cyber probes on LNG terminals with rapid containment and no physical disruption(15d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
NeutralCash Flow
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+0.38
JPY carry direction
-0.29
Commodity-currency breadth
+0.87
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
-0.08
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
+0.29
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
-0.83
Balance Sheet
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.34
HY credit spread z-score
-1.00
Real yields z-score
+1.00
20-trading-day forecast from Cash Flow, Income, and Balance Sheet:
supportive of markets, or not, over the next 20 trading days. As of 2026-10-27.