The Web of Markets
2026-10-28
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Financial↘SPY is likely to move lower over the next 20 sessions.
- Commodity↗PDBC is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency↗UUP is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Crypto↗20d corr +0.30 — BTC-USD is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
Direction ratio at 44% bullish:-6pp weekly contraction
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 34%20-trading-session forecast: a shock, or none, over the next 20 sessions.
- Middle East→Iran-Israel indirect clashes with proxy militia activity(35d outlook)
- East Asia→Chinese naval patrols and drills near Taiwan Strait(18d outlook)
- Eastern Europe→Russia-Ukraine attrition with winter energy leverage(45d outlook)
- Middle East→OPEC+ internal quota compliance tensions(12d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
NeutralCash Flow
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+0.14
JPY carry direction
+0.02
Commodity-currency breadth
+0.87
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
-0.07
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
+0.65
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
-0.54
Balance Sheet
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.34
HY credit spread z-score
-0.62
Real yields z-score
+1.00
20-trading-day forecast from Cash Flow, Income, and Balance Sheet:
supportive of markets, or not, over the next 20 trading days. As of 2026-10-28.