The Web of Markets
2026-10-29
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Financial↗SPY is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Commodity↗PDBC is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency↘UUP is expected to move lower over the next 20 sessions.
- Crypto↗20d corr +0.25 — BTC-USD is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
Direction ratio 36% bearish:contracting breadth -14pp
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 33%20-trading-session forecast: a shock, or none, over the next 20 sessions.
- Middle East→Iran proxy militia clashes with Israeli responses amid stalled nuclear talks(25d outlook)
- Eastern Europe→Russia-Ukraine front stabilization with intermittent winter energy diplomacy(40d outlook)
- Indo-Pacific→US-China friction over Taiwan patrols and export controls(60d outlook)
- Global Energy→OPEC+ quota signaling amid uncertain demand recovery(15d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
NeutralCash Flow
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+0.21
JPY carry direction
+0.07
Commodity-currency breadth
-0.12
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
-0.07
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
+0.69
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
-0.41
Balance Sheet
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.34
HY credit spread z-score
+0.14
Real yields z-score
+1.00
20-trading-day forecast from Cash Flow, Income, and Balance Sheet:
supportive of markets, or not, over the next 20 trading days. As of 2026-10-29.