The Web of Markets
2026-10-31
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Financial→SPY is expected to remain neutral over the next 20 sessions.
- Commodity↗PDBC is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency↗UUP is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Crypto↗20d corr +0.04 — BTC-USD is expected to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
Direction ratio at 38% bullish:contracting breadth -5pp weekly
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 34%20-trading-session forecast: a shock, or none, over the next 20 sessions.
- Middle East→Indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations advance toward sanctions relief(35d outlook)
- Eastern Europe→Russia-Ukraine winter truce talks gain traction under economic pressure(50d outlook)
- East Asia→Routine Taiwan Strait patrols occur without incursion after US-China summit(20d outlook)
- Persian Gulf→Decline in Houthi Red Sea incidents amid reinforced maritime patrols(15d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
NeutralCash Flow
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+0.34
JPY carry direction
-0.16
Commodity-currency breadth
-0.54
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
-0.02
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
+1.00
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
-1.00
Balance Sheet
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.34
HY credit spread z-score
-0.31
Real yields z-score
+0.99
20-trading-day forecast from Cash Flow, Income, and Balance Sheet:
supportive of markets, or not, over the next 20 trading days. As of 2026-10-31.