The Web of Markets
2026-11-01
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Financial→SPY is likely to trade neutral over the next 20 sessions.
- Commodity↗PDBC is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency↗UUP is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Crypto↗20d corr +0.26 — BTC-USD is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
Direction ratio at 35% bullish (-6pp weekly):broadening defensive bias
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 35%20-trading-session forecast: a shock, or none, over the next 20 sessions.
- Middle East→Iran nuclear talks resumption with proxy restraint(22d outlook)
- Eastern Europe→Russia-Ukraine ceasefire framework negotiations(35d outlook)
- East Asia→Routine PLA exercises near Taiwan Strait(18d outlook)
- Red Sea→Houthi shipping disruptions with declining frequency(12d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
NeutralCash Flow
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+0.34
JPY carry direction
-0.16
Commodity-currency breadth
-0.54
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
-0.02
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
+1.00
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
-1.00
Balance Sheet
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.34
HY credit spread z-score
-0.31
Real yields z-score
+0.99
20-trading-day forecast from Cash Flow, Income, and Balance Sheet:
supportive of markets, or not, over the next 20 trading days. As of 2026-11-01.