The Web of Markets
2026-11-02
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Financial→SPY is expected to be neutral over the next 20 sessions.
- Commodity↗PDBC is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency→UUP is expected to be neutral over the next 20 sessions.
- Crypto↗20d corr +0.24 — BTC-USD is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
Direction ratio at 39% bullish:near flip threshold (-2pp weekly) [n=522]
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 37%20-trading-session forecast: a shock, or none, over the next 20 sessions.
- Middle East→Iran proxy clashes with Israel and Gulf shipping friction(35d outlook)
- Eastern Europe→Stalemate along Ukraine front with winter energy posturing(55d outlook)
- East Asia→Routine Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan with rhetoric spikes(75d outlook)
- Middle East→OPEC+ quota compliance signals amid demand uncertainty(20d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
NeutralCash Flow
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+0.72
JPY carry direction
-0.08
Commodity-currency breadth
-0.54
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
-0.02
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
+1.00
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
-1.00
Balance Sheet
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.34
HY credit spread z-score
-0.31
Real yields z-score
+0.99
20-trading-day forecast from Cash Flow, Income, and Balance Sheet:
supportive of markets, or not, over the next 20 trading days. As of 2026-11-02.