The Web of Markets
2026-11-04
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Financial→SPY is expected to be neutral over the next 20 sessions.
- Commodity↗PDBC is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency↗UUP is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Crypto↗20d corr +0.05 — BTC-USD is likely to be higher over the next 20 sessions.
Direction ratio at 35% bullish:defensive rotation bias persists
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 38%20-trading-session forecast: a shock, or none, over the next 20 sessions.
- Eastern Europe→Russia-Ukraine front-line attrition with winter energy diplomacy underway(25d outlook)
- Middle East→Iran-Israel indirect talks following limited exchanges, no shipping disruption(40d outlook)
- East Asia→Routine Chinese naval activity near Taiwan with US diplomatic engagement(60d outlook)
- Global Energy→OPEC+ quota compliance monitoring with no surprise cuts signaled(15d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
NeutralCash Flow
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
+0.42
JPY carry direction
+0.45
Commodity-currency breadth
-0.59
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
-0.04
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
+1.00
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
-1.00
Balance Sheet
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.39
HY credit spread z-score
-1.00
Real yields z-score
+0.84
20-trading-day forecast from Cash Flow, Income, and Balance Sheet:
supportive of markets, or not, over the next 20 trading days. As of 2026-11-04.