The Web of Markets
2026-11-06
How to read the Web of Markets
- Green dot: Bullish outlook
- Red dot: Bearish outlook
- Gray dot: Mixed or neutral
- Light-blue lines: These two markets may move together (the link is not a 20-day bull/bear call)
- Thicker lines: Stronger link between those two markets
- Pulsing lines: Potential volatility between those two markets
- Interest Rates↗The 10-year yield is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Financial↗SPY is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Commodity↗PDBC is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Currency↗UUP is likely to move higher over the next 20 sessions.
- Crypto→20d corr -0.23 — BTC-USD is expected to be neutral over the next 20 sessions.
Direction ratio at 36% bullish:contracting breadth momentum -1
Geopolitical Risk
Stable 35%20-trading-session forecast: a shock, or none, over the next 20 sessions.
- Middle East→Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire monitoring with sporadic proxy incidents(35d outlook)
- Eastern Europe→Russia-Ukraine front stabilization and negotiation signals(75d outlook)
- East Asia→Routine Chinese Taiwan Strait patrols amid tech decoupling talks(25d outlook)
- Persian Gulf→OPEC+ compliance amid softer demand forecasts(40d outlook)
National Accounts Risk
NeutralCash Flow
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
USD direction (DXY proxy)
-0.06
JPY carry direction
+0.49
Commodity-currency breadth
-0.85
Income
Neutral
2/5 agreeing
SPY 50-day SMA slope
-0.14
IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite)
+0.84
QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid)
-1.00
Balance Sheet
Neutral
1/5 agreeing
Yield curve (10y-2y)
+0.39
HY credit spread z-score
-0.33
Real yields z-score
+0.62
20-trading-day forecast from Cash Flow, Income, and Balance Sheet:
supportive of markets, or not, over the next 20 trading days. As of 2026-11-06.