Markets and cadence
What The Silk covers, how often it publishes, and at what horizon.
The Silk publishes daily forecasts across three asset classes and a weekly macro thesis. This page describes what's covered, how often, and at what horizon. For how the system works, see methodology.
Equities
Dynamic universe of approximately 19 – 25 instruments, rebuilt weekly via the Sunday macro thesis. Universe composition is generated by an LLM ensemble (OpenAI + xAI by default) that intersects each provider's recommended assets — only assets both agree on enter the trading universe. The thesis is valid for seven days.
Universe construction is gated through a four-signal convergent funnel: supply, demand, policy, contagion. An asset must clear minimum thresholds on all four to remain in the universe.
Primary equity execution: Alpaca. IBKR mirror runs in parallel as validation.
Commodities (BETA)
14 instruments across four sectors, primarily traded as ETF substitutes:
| Sector | Instruments |
|---|---|
| Metals | Copper, Gold, Silver, Lithium (ALB), Rare Earths (REMX) |
| Energy | Crude Oil WTI, Natural Gas, Uranium (URA) |
| Agriculture | Soybeans, Corn, Wheat |
| Softs | Coffee, Sugar |
| Broad | Diversified Commodity ETF (PDBC) |
Commodity futures (GC=F, CL=F, etc.) are
routed through their ETF substitutes (GLD, USO)
at order time. ETF substitution was validated end-to-end over
2023 – 2026 (Path A backtest): Sharpe +0.66 net of cost, +119% net
return, 42% win rate, 3.04 diversification ratio.
Commodity scanning includes a Polyphonic Drift Score (PDS) coherence layer that decomposes price into four frequency voices (252/126/63/31-day cycles) via FFT and scores how well they stay coherent.
Cryptocurrencies
Eight majors:
| Symbol | Asset | Sector |
|---|---|---|
| BTC | Bitcoin | Store of value |
| ETH | Ethereum | Smart contract |
| SOL | Solana | Smart contract |
| AVAX | Avalanche | Smart contract |
| XRP | Ripple | Payments |
| LINK | Chainlink | Oracle |
| DOT | Polkadot | Smart contract |
| ADA | Cardano | Smart contract |
Stablecoin flow context (USDT, USDC, USDS, DAI, USD1) from DefiLlama and BTC dominance from CoinGecko serve as regime indicators. Primary crypto execution: Coinbase. IBKR crypto mirror parallel.
Update cadence
| Output | Cadence | Time |
|---|---|---|
| Equity newspaper | Daily, weekdays | Morning ET |
| Commodity brief | Daily, weekdays | Morning ET |
| Crypto brief | Daily, weekdays | Morning ET |
| Risk dashboard | Daily, weekdays | Half-hourly during market hours |
| Macro thesis | Weekly | Sunday |
| Commodity producer map | Weekly | Weekends |
| Nightly probability update | Daily, all days | Evening ET |
Forecast horizon
Each daily brief produces a 30-day forward-looking forecast. Trade holding periods are short — typically 4 trading days (time stop) or sooner if the profit target or stop loss fires. See exit rules for details.
What this page does not cover
For methodology (z-score thresholds, domain weights, cascade analysis, exit rules), see methodology. For terminology, see glossary.