Glossary

Terms used across The Silk's briefs, blog, and dashboards. For methodology, see methodology; for what is covered, see coverage.

Alert: A z-score breakout in the 2.0σ – 3.0σ range. Moderate momentum signal. Trades in the breakout direction.
Arbitrage layers: See Cascade.
Bayesian drip: Continuous-calibration mechanism in which yesterday's probability becomes today's prior. Reversals greater than 15 percentage points over a 7-day window are flagged. Algebra: F2 ⊕ ¬P5.
Brier feedback: Continuous-calibration mechanism that compares forecast probabilities to realized outcomes and computes a rolling Brier score. Drift above 0.05 triggers domain-weight recalibration. Algebra: F8 ⊕ Sc2.
Cascade: The three-layer structure used to organize each signal's downstream opportunities. Primary (direct price arbitrage), Secondary (correlated ripple effects), Tertiary (derivative innovations). The Silk's structural bet that interconnected markets propagate signals along discoverable paths.
Cascade momentum: Tertiary probability change over a 7-day window.
Confidence cone: The forecast uncertainty label on each daily brief: tight, medium, or wide. Widens automatically when data sources are degraded or the system is in a cold-streak cycle state.
Critical: A z-score breakout greater than 3.0σ. Extreme overextension. Excluded by default in ensemble mode after backtest analysis showed CRITICAL reversal trades are catastrophic in trending bear markets.
Data notes: A footer line on each brief that discloses when a data source degraded (e.g. FRED 500) and what fallback value was substituted. Surfaces silent fallbacks for transparency.
Decay half-life: Days until an arbitrage edge halves. Urgency signal — short decay half-lives mean the opportunity is closing fast.
Domain weights: The five expert weights (Economist 7.2%, Data Scientist 40.3%, Critical Thinker 33.0%, Forecaster 5.3%, Psychologist 14.2%) used to weight each opportunity's probability.
Ensemble mode: Mode in which multiple LLM providers (default: OpenAI + xAI) generate independent forecasts and only assets both agree on enter the trading universe.
Heuristic algebra: Three operators (⊕ Combination, ¬ Transformation, ∼ Equivalence) used to ground LLM reasoning with domain-specific axioms.
Innovation leverage: Ratio of tertiary expected value to primary expected value. Measures how much option-value the cascade carries beyond the direct price trade.
One Page Brief: The standardized output format for daily forecasts. Four sections: Situation, Signal, Opportunity, Probabilities. Under 600 words. Used to enforce clarity and decision-focus.
PDS (Polyphonic Drift Score): A frequency-domain regime score (0 – 1) that decomposes a price series into four voices (252/126/63/31-day cycles) via FFT and scores how coherently they move. Layer 8 in The Silk's regime classification surface.
Premortem: Adversarial calibration mechanism that assumes the forecast was wrong and writes a postmortem grounded in out-of-sample win rates and returns with explicit sample sizes ([n=X]). Algebra: CT7 ⊕ ¬P7.
Primary: The direct price-arbitrage layer of a cascade. Example: spot-futures basis trade on the signal asset.
Profit target: Movement-based exit at 2.5σ favorable move from entry. The first of three exit triggers, the others being a 4-day time stop and an ATR-scaled stop loss.
Secondary: The correlated-ripple layer of a cascade. Example: downstream assets that typically follow the signal asset.
Sigma threshold: A z-score boundary that triggers analysis. The Silk uses 1.5σ (WATCH), 2.0σ (ALERT), 3.0σ (CRITICAL).
Signal: A z-score breakout from rolling mean. See Z-score.
Spiderweb: The Silk's cross-asset coupling map. Each asset's direction is represented as a node; edges encode correlation and lead-time. The spiderweb's direction ratio summarizes the macro stance.
Stablecoin flow: Net supply change across tracked stablecoins (USDT, USDC, USDS, DAI, USD1). Used as a crypto-regime indicator and conjunction driver in the crypto brief.
Tertiary: The derivative-innovation layer of a cascade. New contracts, structured products, hedging tools that the primary or secondary cascade implies.
Trend slope: 7-day change in probability. Used as a momentum indicator.
Watch: A z-score breakout in the 1.5σ – 2.0σ range. Weak momentum signal. Trades in the breakout direction.
Z-score: Number of standard deviations a current price move sits from its rolling mean. The Silk's primary screen.